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MGL takes on the Neyer challenge (January 13, 2004)
Discussion ThreadPosted 12:31 p.m.,
January 19, 2004
(#53) -
Dr Doppler_s Cthulhuite Spawn Counterpart
Hm, I think I understand some things about what you are doing, but I have some questions.
1. Why do you use regressed performance from three previous years? You weight each year based on the observed correlation between past and future performance, right? And shouldn't 4-years-ago performance also have some correlation with future performance?
2. Also, when you are done, you have a Quality-adjusted estimate of a player's true value, right? Isn't this even more accurate than the 'true' values you used before? Shouldn't you therefore re-do the entire process, using the Quality-adjusted values for the previous three years for each player to determine a 'true+' value, which would be better than the 'true' values you originally used? Presumably you would keep iterating until the Quality-adjusted values stopped changing much between iterations.